Costs are rising after prices

Experts holding "Romir" recorded an increase in total daily spending of Russians on the background of increasing prices growth rates.
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According to the results of the study, the total daily expenses of Russians in September increased compared to the August figures by 1.3%, which significantly exceeds the monthly inflation of 0.2%, calculated by Rosstat. In annual terms, the growth of the aggregate daily expenses of our compatriots turned out to be significantly more modest - only 1.9%, which is almost half the inflation for this period of 3.4%.
"Thus, real, that is, cleared of inflation, the spending of Russians in September turned out to be lower than the similar indicators of all previous years of observations except for only 2012," the analysts said in a comment.
At the same time, experts state that at the beginning of autumn prices started to rise in general. In particular, non-food products rose in price by 0.4%. In general, products fell in price by 0.1% on a monthly basis due to the continuing seasonal factor of low prices for most fruits and vegetables.However, tomatoes and cucumbers, as well as oranges and lemons have already begun to add in price, noted in the "Romir". “In October, the seasonal factor will probably come to naught. Already now, without taking into account fruit and vegetable products, food prices have increased by 0.7% over the month - eggs, meat and poultry, sugar and bread rose in price,” experts add.
Thus, the rise in prices has already affected the value of the average check, which in September immediately added 4.8% compared to August. With such a tangible change in the size of the average check against the background of a modest increase in total expenses, we can say that the Russians have already experienced a rise in prices and could not resist it, analysts emphasize.
Last month, the residents of the Central Federal District showed the largest increase in expenses - spending there increased immediately by 3.5% compared to August. Slightly behind in terms of indicators in the North-West of Russia - the September increase there was 3.1%. In addition, a 2.5% increase in expenses was recorded in Siberia. In the rest of the regions, consumer spending in September decreased in September: by 5.7% in the south of the country, by 5.6% in the Urals, and by 2.9% in the Volga District.
In annual terms, the increase in expenses was recorded in the North-West Federal District (+ 6.5%) and in Siberia (+ 1.2%). In the Central Federal District, September expenses remained at the level of September 2017.In other regions, there is also a decrease in spending. In particular, expenses in the Urals decreased by 6.3% over the year, in the Volga region - by 1.8%, in the South - by 1.2%.
The increase in costs in the Central and North-Western districts is largely due to increased costs in Moscow and St. Petersburg, experts say Romira. So, in September, consumer activity in Moscow grew immediately by 8.3% compared with August, and in the northern capital - by 3%. However, in the context of the year, Muscovites showed a more modest increase in expenses (2.1%) than the residents of St. Petersburg (9.6%).
“In the rest of the million-plus population, the expenditures of residents decreased by 1.4% in a month, although they increased by 2.2% compared to September last year. In the five hundred thousand inhabitants, the picture is even more sad. In this type of cities, expenditures decreased by 0.8% in a month , and for the year - by 5.6%. Only in cities with a population of 100 to 500 thousand people, both for the month and for the year, expenses increased by 0.5%. However, this growth is almost leveled against the background of inflation ", - analysts comment .
In addition, according to the authors of the study, in September of this year, the total cost growth was provided by Russians with average (2%) and high (2.7%) incomes.Categories of citizens with low incomes, on the contrary, reduced their spending by 7%. Regarding September 2017, the costs of low- and middle-income remained at the same level. Growth was shown only by "high profit", whose expenses increased by 2% compared to September last year.
The research results of the Romir holding are based on consumption data of 40 thousand Russians, 15 thousand households in 220 cities with a population of 10 thousand people and more, representing the consumer and consumer behavior of residents of Russian cities. Participants scan the barcodes of all purchased items brought home. Scan data in the online mode enters the database of the scan panel.
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of Economics of Vyatka State University Larisa Suvorova (Kirov) considers the research results to be logical: “We can’t ignore the results of sufficiently representative research conducted by Romir. In general, I agree with them. services are quite expected and consumer spending.
The regional trend of changing costs is difficult to assess and predict due to the unavailability of statistical indicators in the public domain for the nearest retrospective. "
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor at the Finance Department of the Saransk Cooperative Institute (Branch) of the Russian University of Cooperation Elena Zotova did not see anything critical in the identified changes: “The conclusions related to the changes in population spending growth are of a real objective nature. The expenses of Russians increased slightly in September. that the changes taking place are quite natural, traditional. The increase in the Central Bank of the discount rate in September 2018 made it possible to partially contain inflation, the day gi have become more expensive. "
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of Economics of the Perm State Humanitarian-Pedagogical University Elena Pastukhova agrees with the conclusion about the connection of price increases and cost increases, but notes that when assessing the dynamics of consumption it would be more correct to proceed not from monetary, but from quantitative indicators we go to the store, then we make various purchases at the prices that we see on the price tags. If these goods are rising in price (this is already inflation), our expenses also start to rise accordingly. This is completely logical chain.<...> In our region, prices have increased significantly, especially judging by the fruits and vegetables that are the most sought-after commodity in September. Prices for fruits and vegetables in the season in the Urals are significantly higher than last year. <...>
"Romir", conducting research, makes an assessment in money. In order to assess whether consumption has increased or not, you need to look at the number. If last year it was possible to buy a kilogram of tomatoes, then with an increase in prices you can buy only half a kilo. It turns out that consumption with rising prices has decreased. It is important to pay attention to the categories of people with different types of income and expenses, since they are different for different groups, respectively, and the price increase will be different. "
Well, something like this.
The full version of the material with detailed comments of experts can be read here.
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