Incomes of Russians: the fall accelerated

Disappointing news comes from Rosstat. The fall in real incomes of Russians, which, by the way, continues, is already the third year, by the end of 2016 it has doubled.

Over the past year, Russians' revenues declined by 5.9% compared to 3.2%, recorded in 2015. The hardest incomes of Russians fell in August - 8.5%. And it was the worst figure in seven years. Then the fall slowed down a bit - 5.6% in October - but towards the end of the year, the rate of decline again became faster: by the end of December, the fall in real income was 6.1%.
Compared to 2015, the rate of decline accelerated by 84% - from 3.2% to 5.9%. If to compare with 2014, the reduction increased by more than eight times - then this figure was only 0.7%. True, then the figures were calculated without taking into account the Crimea and Sevastopol.
The fall in real incomes of Russians has been going on for the third year already, and over the past 26 months, the statisticians have never recorded at least a minimal increase in cash savings.The last time an increase in revenues - by 2.1% - was noted in October 2014. Meanwhile, back in November 2016, First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Government, Igor Shuvalov, said that the fall in real incomes of Russians was over.
In nominal terms, incomes of the population in 2016 amounted to 30,775 rubles per month, showing an increase of 1%. The average salary at the end of 2016 amounted to 36 thousand 703 rubles per month, an increase of 7.7%. True, in real terms, the average salary in 2016 increased only by 0.6%.
A few days ago, the Center for Market Research at the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge published data according to which in the fourth quarter of last year, 39% of Russians reported a deterioration in their financial situation. However, the authors of the study assure that Russians have adapted to this process, since the negative assessments of this situation are gradually decreasing.
“The figures show one thing: the population has already adapted to the“ new reality, ”that is,“ pulled up the belts, ”reducing expenses as much as possible and optimizing their consumer basket at a lower income level.The psychological effect of the relative stabilization of the macroeconomic situation in the country also had an effect, ”said Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Studies of the HSE Institute of Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge at HSE.
Last December, Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets said that the federal statistics service underestimates the number of poor people in Russia. According to official data, 20.3 million Russians or almost 14% of the country's population are below the poverty line, but according to the deputy chairman of the government, things are much worse for people's self-esteem, since those who consider themselves poor in Russia are much more.
Director of the Socium Analytical Research Center Pavel Khrapov told Davydov.Indeks that such trends as falling incomes usually last three to four years, and then certain changes occur - trends change either that way or the other way. .
- Since 2014, I predicted stagnation, even depression. This is what happened. In 2017, this stagnation should end. But how - this is a question. In my opinion, events can develop in two scenarios.First, they can be situational, when, when the situation fluctuates, before a change in direction, before improvement, a step back is taken, just like on the stock exchange - there is always a slight decline before growth. Another option - the continuation of the recession, when the situation goes into negative.
At the same time, the expert believes that the Russians can fully cope with the possible deterioration in the quality of life:
- Perhaps, the tourist flow from Russia has decreased, but not significantly. I look at the streets of Novosibirsk and I see that the number of cars is not decreasing, but growing. I see that in large shopping centers people buy not only bread and water. Is this a crisis?
The teacher of the Trans-Baikal State University, Ph.D. in Sociological Sciences Georgy Zimirev believes that in such situations it is not the average figure that is given, but each region should be watched separately.
- Relying, for example, on calculations for an average salary of 30 thousand rubles, economists from ministries risk making a mistake in the total figures. In different regions, people's incomes are different. Somewhere there is simply no such reduction. If we talk about our region - a region with a very modest prosperity - here a significant part of the population has already experienced the fall in real incomes.
As for the financial threshold, which is commonly called the “poverty line,” we can talk about it when the population is not able to pay utility bills and begin to restrict themselves to the most necessary things - food, he concluded.
Well, something like this.
The full version of the material with detailed comments of experts can be read here.
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